How To Do Bitcoin Price Prediction?

Bitcoin price prediction is crucial for the entire cryptocurrency industry, as the price trend of Bitcoin directly affects the trend of other altcoins. As Bitcoin holds the largest amount of capital in the cryptocurrency market, it is like the stock market index. The trend of the index often represents the development of the entire industry. For example, in a market with ample hot money, if Bitcoin rises or falls by 5%, altcoins often rise or fall by 25%, which is a ratio of 5 to 1. Therefore, reading the market refers to first looking at the trend of Bitcoin in the past week and predicting its direction. From there, investors can decide on their short-term investment strategy for altcoins.

Here are some ways to do Bitcoin price prediction:

1. Technical Analysis: This method involves analyzing historical data such as price charts, trading volume, and market trends to identify patterns and predict future price movements. Technical analysts use various tools like Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Fibonacci Retracement to identify support and resistance levels, trends, and potential price targets.
2. Fundamental Analysis: This method involves analyzing various fundamental factors that can affect the demand and supply of Bitcoin, such as economic events, regulatory developments, adoption rates, and investor sentiment. Fundamental analysts use news articles, social media trends, and other sources to gather information and make predictions.
3. Sentiment Analysis: This method involves analyzing the emotions and opinions of market participants, such as traders and investors, to determine market sentiment. Sentiment analysis tools use natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning algorithms to scan social media platforms, news articles, and other sources to gauge market sentiment.
4. Machine Learning: This method involves using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms to analyze large amounts of data to identify patterns and predict future price movements. Machine learning models use historical price data, technical indicators, and other variables to make predictions.

What will be the price of Bitcoin in 2023?

Bitcoin faced many challenges in 2022, with its market value dropping by almost 65%, including the Terra Luna crash, the FTX exchange fallout, and the USDC collapse caused by Silicon Valley Bank. With each drop, a large amount of funds were seen bottom fishing, pushing Bitcoin’s floor price higher each time. From the lowest point of 15K to the second drop to 19K, and to the recent 24K, funds have absorbed a large number of chips. Even if another major event like FTX closing and selling BTC were to occur, it would be difficult for the price to drop back to 19K unless the entire cryptocurrency industry collapses.

Many people are wondering about the future of Bitcoin – will it recover or suffer another crash like in 2022? This article explores the possibilities for Bitcoin prices in 2023 and offers a bullish perspective.

BTC USDT  broke through the resistance line of $25,300 this morning, so the price has started to fluctuate between $26,000 and $25,000 in the short term. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has slowed down its interest rate hikes, so the next Fed interest rate meeting will directly affect Bitcoin’s price. In the worst case scenario, if the Fed continues to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, Bitcoin’s price will fall to around $24,000. At the same time, the Fed’s interest rate hikes mark the end of financial regulation, so April is the beginning of the Bitcoin bull market. It should be noted that this is not a bull market, but the beginning of one, which means the price is likely to fluctuate between $25,000 and $26,000 until August, and then soar to around $32,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023. Therefore, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $32,000 around the end of 2023 is 70%, with the remaining 30% due to the Russia-Ukraine war and Fed interest rate hikes.

The end of a bear market marks the beginning of a bull market

In late March or early April 2023, the price of Bitcoin broke through the resistance line at 25,300 and continued to rise to 26,000, indicating the end of the bear market. The overall market bottomed out in November 2022. However, it should be emphasized that the beginning of a bull market does not necessarily mean the arrival of a bull market. Due to the Fed’s interest rate hike, there is no hot money in the market, and without hot money, there is no liquidity. In addition, the US Treasury’s budget will be exhausted around June 2023. If the Fed continues to raise interest rates at that time, Bitcoin will fall to around 23,800. Altcoins may also experience fluctuations and a sharp drop in June due to the collapse of USDC. The stablecoins in the market have all purchased Bitcoin as a hedge. This is why Bitcoin has experienced a significant increase recently, while other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, have not followed the trend and exceeded Bitcoin’s rise.

The large-scale financial events of this bear market have caused a significant consumption of retail investors’ hot money, coupled with the Fed’s interest rate hike, leading to a continuous decline in the US M2 money supply over the past year. It is unlikely that the market will quickly recover to the size it was in 2021, which is an important reason why Bitcoin will not exceed $32,000 in 2023. There is a 30% chance that it will only reach $28,000.

In 2024, Bitcoin will experience another halving, but due to the long cycle of the bear market, a significant amount of hot money will have been drained away, and it is predicted that the price of Bitcoin will not be able to return to its previous high of $65,000.